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In an effort to support the ailing economy from the negative impact of the Covid-19 pandemic, the RBI on 22nd May announced a series of measures, along with a cut in repo and reverse rate by 40bps to 4% and 3.35%; a basis point is 0.01 percentage point. In a span of just 2 months MPC has now reduced the policy rate by 115 bps. The advancing of its MPC meet and the additional measures in shape of liquidity expansion, support to exports and imports and continuation of accommodative stance displays RBIs agility and readiness to mitigate the negative effect of COVID-19 along with focus on growth. Domestic economic activity had been severely impacted on the back of the lock-down and the only silver lining is provided by agriculture, with the summer sowing of rice, pulses and oilseeds in the country progressing well. The GDP growth is indicated to contract sharply as the drop in economic activity has been higher than expectation. Moderation in inflation as witnessed in recent months indicates that inflation though likely to remain elevated in 1st half of the CY will likely to ease in 2nd half, thus leaving scope for further monetary accommodation. RBI policy highlights • Repo rate reduced by 40bps from 4.40% to 4.00% and Reverse repo rate reduced by 40bps from 3.75% to 3.35%. • Bank rate and Marginal Standing Facility (MSF), stands adjusted at 4.25%. • Continuation with accommodative stance. • An extension of 3 more months for Moratorium on term loan, till 31st August, 2020. • Relaxation on asset classification as NPAs till 31st August, 2020. • SRF of Rs 150bn to SIDBI extended by additional 90 days. • Line of credit extension of Rs 150bn to EXIM Bank for a period of 90 days. • Relaxation of guidelines in Consolidated Sinking Fund (CSF) of State Governments. Analysis The cut in repo rates was in line with the market expectation, as the movement of the yield curve indicates that most of rate cut was priced in by the market. Going forward we count on another 50bps rate cut within the coming months, if inflation stays tepid. RBI focus will be concentrated on revival of growth. The extension of moratorium period bodes well to relieve stress of the borrowers, but impact on the rise of NPAs and provisioning by the lenders is to be carefully noted. Expectations that RBI may come up with OMOs for G-Secs and SDLs will bode well in reduction of the elevated spreads and limit the spike in yields. Range bound movements in the yield curve is foreseen in near term, with a gradual shift downwards Strategy Surplus liquidity in the system may increase the demand for high quality corporate bonds in the short to medium end of the curve and an expectation of spread contraction is high going forward. We continue with our stance on being overweight on conservative strategies, and reiterate our focus being on risk adjusted return in regards to fixed income portfolios. We maintain preference for AAA accruals funds and exposures in fixed income space can be taken through Banking & PSU Debt funds, high-quality Short-term funds and AAA Corporate Bond Funds.

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Indian Equity Summary- • The Global and the domestic equity market witnessed a broad based rally on the backdrop of gradual reopening of the global economy and unprecedented stimulus package implemented worldwide by the central banks and government. The domestic equity market, in line with the global markets closed in green for the second consecutive week with Nifty 50 and Sensex up by 5.86% and 5.75% respectively. • Majority of the sectoral indices closed in green on a W-o-W basis with the top performing sectoral indices being BSE Realty, BSE Consumer,Durable, BSE Metals that rose by 11.12%, 10.03% and 9.27% respectively. • Going forward, global factors like development on the US -China relationship front , Covid-19 situations as globally economies have started, opening up and as the remaining results of the earnings seasons unfold will continue to dictate the trend of the domestic equity market. We expect the trading range for Nifty between 9800-10,300 in the near term. Indian Debt Market- • Government bond prices fell sharply as the yield on the latest 10-year benchmark 5.79% 2030 paper settled at 5.82% on Jun 5 compared with 5.78% on May 29. • Reserve Bank of India announces the auction of 91 days, 182 day and 364 day Government of India Treasury Bills of Rs 15,000 Crore , Rs 16,000 Crore and Rs14,000 Crore, aggregating face value Rs 45,000 Crore • State Governments have announced the sale of their securities by way of an auction, for an aggregate face value of ₹ 16,060 Cr. • We expect the 10 year benchmark yield to trade between 5.80-6.00% in near term. Domestic News • According to industry body worldsteel ,India's steel demand is likely to face a steep decline of 18 per cent in 2020 while the global steel demand is expected to contract 6.4 per cent to 1,654 million tonnes (MT) due to the Covid-19 crisis. • Rail freight traffic in April and May dropped by 28 per cent, or 58 million tonne (mt), to 148 MT, compared to 206 mt during the same period last year owing to the decline in economic activity during the first two months of the fiscal year 2020-21 (FY21). • The RBI has created a Payments Infrastructure Development Fund (PIDF) of Rs 500Crore to encourage acquirers to deploy Points of Sale (PoS) infrastructure — both physical and digital modes — in tier-3 to tier-6 centres and north eastern states. • Rating agency Moody’s downgraded India’s foreign currency and local currency long term issuer ratings to Baa3 from Baa2, while maintaining a negative outlook, citing prolonged period of low growth and further deterioration in the government’s fiscal position. • International News • China exports fall from 3.5 in April% to 3.3% in May while imports fall from 14.2% in April to 16.7% in May. • As per the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) ,index of US factory activity rose to 43.1 In May from 41.5 in April. A reading below 50 indicates contraction in manufacturing that accounts for 11% of the US economy. • As per the job report released Labor Department for the month of May, the jobless rate in US dropped to 13.3% in May from 14.7% in April whereas Nonfarm payrolls rose by 2.5 million jobs after a record plunge of slightly under 20.7 million in April. • Japan's factory activity in May shrank at the fastest pace since March 2009 as the final au Jibun Bank Japan Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell to 38.4 from 41.9 in April. • Member countries of the Group of 20 pledged more than $21 billion to fight the coronavirus(Covid-19) pandemic. As per the details of draft deal reported by Reuetrs, OPEC, Russia and allies are in deliberation to extend record oil production cuts of 9.7Mb/pd until the end of July after crude prices doubled in the past two months on the back of their efforts to withdraw almost 10% of global supplies from the market. Commodities and Currency

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